#SelamatMalamTraderSemogaProfitSelaluAmin
malu mau analisa, mau bagi2 analisa aja dari mbah [b]Morgan Stanley [/b]

[center][b][title]USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, AUD, NZD: Weekly Outlook - Morgan Stanley[/title][/b][/center]
[b]USD: Staying Offered. Bearish.[/b]

The cyclical rebound in China’s growth has supported global risk appetite, and investors’ hunt for yield has brought global risk premia down. In this environment, low US real yield is unattractive and the USD should continue to come under selling pressure. This week, the FOMC meeting will be in focus. Recent mixed US data indicates that there is unlikely to be a material change in the Fed’s dovish stance, which means the USD will remain offered for now.

[b]EUR: Range Bound Post ECB. Neutral.[/b]

We maintain our view for EUR to be range bound following the recent rather uneventful ECB meeting. The ECB’s language on the exchange rate remained relatively benign but we do expect the ECB to push back If EUR appreciates from current levels. Furthermore, while the economy appears to have had a strong 1Q, forward-looking indicators point to a sluggish 2Q while Brexit risks and signs of increasing populism (such as the Dutch referendum result) will also limit the EUR’s upside. We remain long-term bears.

[b]JPY: Tactical Weakness. Neutral.[/b]

Watch: CPI, Industrial Production, BoJ Rates Decision We think USDJPY could tactically rebound to 112.50, as strong global risk appetite reduces the demand for safe haven assets and pauses JPY-supportive repatriation flows by domestic investors. However, our medium term bullish view on JPY has not changed and we would look to sell at 112.50. This week, CPI numbers and the BoJ meeting will be in focus as markets assess whether the BoJ still has policy tools left to curb the unwanted currency strength.

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